Clinton is still the Bookies’ Favourite
Despite various opinion polls in the US showing a narrowing gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the odds in betting circuits are still in favour of Clinton.
Ever since FBI Director James Comey said Friday last week that the bureau will reopen its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s alleged email scandal, the Democratic nominee for President has yielded ground to Republican rival Donald Trump in various polls.
But the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that she has clawed her way back up. Of the 1772 people polled by Reuters/Ipsos, 45 per cent said they supported Clinton and 39% said they favoured Trump. On the 27th of October, one day before Comey’s announcement, Clinton led Trump 43 to 37.
The UK’s betting circuits, however, have money riding on a Clinton victory. Online betting portals such as Paddy Power and Ladbrokes are running Clinton’s odds at 2/5, which suggests bookies are giving a 71 per cent chance to a Clinton victory. Trump’s odds in contrast are at 2/1, suggesting a 33 per cent chance.
Gamblers are generally pretty good at predicting outcomes, so the betting sites may actually know what is likely to be the outcome on November 8, which is the election day.
Just the same, global financial markets are taking seriously the possibility of a Trump victory. Stock markets have been jittery and gold prices have been inching up. The yellow metal becomes a defensive investment when investors expect the future to be uncertain.
On the whole though, unless there’s a new, earth-shattering scandal related to her, Hillary Clinton appears on her way to becoming America’s first female president.